Donald Trump – December 2023: “The world is in more danger than it’s ever been…and I will be the only one—I can say this with great surety—I will prevent World War III.”
Forget about the arch, the reflecting pool, the ballroom and Trump’s name and image on countless items and objects. The legacy Trump seems to be working towards is a new world war. The world is a mess, and given the centrality of the Middle East, it is more likely than ever that further disruption could drag us all into a Third World War. And so, along comes Donald Trump to provide that disruption.
The Middle East has a long history of rivalries, but the United States, its allies, and NATO have done all they can to exacerbate the ethnic and religious conflicts that only seem to increase over time. In the name of democracy, we do all we can to destroy socialist and democratically elected governments that do not serve our economic interests, while bolstering authoritarian regimes that do. It is clear, or should be, that we have lost the war against Iran. Iran’s proxy in the east, the Houthis, have taken control of the eastern side of the Arabian Peninsula, with their capture of Mokha, potentially giving them control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The Iranian leadership knows Trump has no further appetite for war, giving them license to continue to control, through threats and violence, the Strait of Hormuz. George W. Bush destroyed Iraq, leading to both its internal divisions and substantial alliance with Iran. Obama and NATO destroyed Libya, leading to the country’s and the region’s further destabilization. Trump has not only lost the war with Iran, but has emboldened Iran, along with Russia and China (and other adversaries) in the process.
And what of Trump’s promise of an “economic D-day,” a globally coordinated assault to bring Iran to the negotiating table and abide by whatever peace terms we demand? The sanctions have been announced as “Operation Economic Outcast,” targeting firms in Turkey, Malaysia, Singapore, UAE, China, as well attempting to hold host countries accountable, or at least agreeable to our needs. But does anyone believe this will work? A necessary assumption to the success of this initiative is that Donald Trump is seen as a global leader as opposed to a feckless, bumbling buffoon, and that other countries cannot survive without our support. As to the latter, Trump has done all that he can to ensure that nations around the world work diligently to secure alternative investment, trade, reserve currency, and supply chain arrangements anywhere other than the United States. As to the leadership questions, I think Trump has little respect on the world stage, even though he is feared – mostly for his incompetence, his volatility, his narcissism, in conjunction with the authority he still wields.
And what of China? Will the talks with them convince them to support the United States’ attempt to isolate Iran? Unlikely. China has too much to gain by continuing its support of Iran, and by extension to Hezbollah and the Houthis. This ineffectiveness of sanctions was a point well made by Kimberly Donovan and Emily Ezratty in a March 2026 article in the Atlantic Council’s Dispatches publication:
“China has supplied Iran with drones, anti-ship cruise missiles, surface-to-air missiles, and the components thereof, to aid in its aerial and maritime defense capabilities. In other instances, China directly supplies Iran with Western or Chinese technology components that are found in Iranian drones used against US military installations and economic interests in the Gulf…
…Despite the severity and consistency of US sanctions and export controls targeting Iran’s drone acquisition, Iran maintains the technical knowledge, mature production lines, and continued access to dual-use components necessary to rebuild its drone stockpiles. Cooperation with adversarial states—predominantly China and Russia—further reinforces these capabilities by distributing supply chains and insulating production from Western pressure.”
There should be little doubt that the Houthi threat to the Bab al-Mandab Strait is as strategic, as it is opportunistic. Will Trump send institute a second naval blockade to ensure that the sealane is opened or launch air strikes? Thus far he has refused to become directly involved, preferring to increase the military capability of the Saudis, which will further inflame regional tensions. The desperation of Netanyahu to remain in power (and out of jail) by continued pursuit of genocidal expansion, along with Putin’s increasing frustration with the resiliency of Ukraine, and the likelihood of the Ukraine war extending further into Europe, only adds to a worst-case scenario. And last night Trump told a diminished crowd of die-hard MAGA adherents that he was tired of politics.
I suspect there are conversations behind the scenes for allowing Trump to make a graceful exit, accompanied by a full pardon for him and his family. This speculation is more plausible given Vance’s recently reported outreach directly to military leaders for an honest assessment on the war with Iran (this is not typically the role of the Vice President). But will Vance be any better as President? It is possible he will be worse. Even though Vance has been one of the main skeptics of the war from the start, his tech buddies now have wormed their way into the bloated defense budget. All these conflicts offer both testing grounds for military AI technology and future opportunities for profit. It is difficult to believe that the man who went from referring to Trump as Hitler and then becoming his subservient VP, will not succumb to the demands of a tech sector, and those who run it, given how his entire career is based on their active support.
World War III is not inevitable, but it is beginning to look increasingly possible.